Israeli Elections: Arab Parties Emerge as Kingmakers, Netanyahu and Opposition Both Fall Short of Majority

Arab parties representing Israel’s minority population appear to have emerged as decisive players in the country’s parliamentary elections, with both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing alliance and the opposition bloc led by his rival, Gadi Eisenkot, failing to secure the majority needed to form a government.

According to Israel’s Channel 12, after the counting of all regular ballots is completed, Netanyahu’s alliance is expected to win 53 seats, opposition parties 48 seats, and Arab parties 19 seats. A minimum of 61 seats is required to form a government in Israel’s 120-member parliament, the Knesset. TRT World reports that the election results could nearly double the representation of Arab parties, making their role in forming the next government extremely important. However, opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot has so far not clearly expressed a willingness to form a formal governing coalition with Arab parties.

Approximately 21 percent of Israel’s population consists of Palestinian Arab citizens. During the election campaign, several constituencies within this community strongly criticized the Netanyahu government’s policies, discriminatory treatment of the Arab minority, and concerns over civil rights. The increase in support for Arab parties is being linked to public opposition to these policies and growing participation in the electoral process.

Preliminary results suggest that effective participation by Arab voters may have helped prevent Netanyahu and his far-right allies from securing a clear parliamentary majority. However, the influence of Arab parties in government formation will depend on whether they support the opposition, join a potential coalition, or remain outside the government while setting conditions for parliamentary support.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog has said that all political parties should make every possible effort to avoid another round of elections. He said that, following the current results, political leaders have a responsibility to find a way to establish a stable government. Under Israel’s political system, the president consults political parties before inviting the leader considered most likely to secure parliamentary support to form a government.

According to Israeli election officials, more than 500,000 special ballots cast by military personnel, police officers, diplomats, and other citizens voting outside their registered polling stations were still awaiting counting. According to Israeli news website Ynet, the counting of these ballots was expected to begin on Wednesday evening and be completed by Thursday evening, although the process could continue until Friday. These votes could alter the final distribution of parliamentary seats, although current figures indicate that neither major political bloc has secured a clear majority.

The deadlock over government formation could affect Israel’s political and economic situation. Following the election results, the Israeli shekel weakened, while the Tel Aviv stock market also recorded a significant decline. Investors fear that if political parties fail to form a stable coalition, delays in policymaking and regional tensions could further increase uncertainty.

It is worth noting that Arab parties have emerged as potential kingmakers in the Israeli elections. Despite leading the race, Netanyahu’s alliance has failed to secure a majority, while the opposition also requires additional support to form a government. The final results and negotiations between political parties will determine whether a new government can be established in Israel or whether the country will have to return to the polls. According to Israel’s Central Elections Committee, voter turnout stood at 77.7 percent, the highest level in more than two decades and approximately seven percentage points higher than in the 2022 elections. Final election results are expected on Thursday or Friday.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has stressed that a right-wing government should be established to ensure the country’s long-term security. On the other hand, Netanyahu’s rival, former Israeli army chief Gadi Eisenkot, has claimed that voters have rejected the Israeli leader who has remained in power for an extended period. He said Netanyahu should withdraw from politics. Neither leader has declared victory. However, their statements have failed to resolve the uncertainty surrounding the election results. On Tuesday, Netanyahu accused his opponents of electoral fraud, claiming that three suspects had been arrested on polling day in connection with envelopes containing cash and ballot papers associated with Mansour Abbas.

Israeli police have rejected allegations by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party that Arab parties committed widespread election fraud, while the counting of “double-envelope” ballots, used by certain categories of voters, is still underway. The Israeli police have categorically dismissed claims by Netanyahu’s Likud Party that Arab parties had “stolen” the election. The development comes as the counting of double-envelope ballots continues across the country.

Providing information to local Hebrew-language media, a senior police source said:

“Compared with the previous elections, election day this time also passed peacefully, with an extremely low number of unusual incidents related to electoral integrity.” Police also stressed that there was no investigative or intelligence evidence to support the allegations made by Likud. Police raided a building in the Negev Desert and recovered envelopes containing thousands of shekels in cash, along with ballot papers. It is worth noting that the policies of Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition government have deepened political divisions within Israel, while also increasing the country’s international isolation. Despite this, Netanyahu continues to present himself as a strong leader capable of confronting Israel’s enemies.

 The 77-year-old Netanyahu has served as prime minister for approximately 19 years over the past three decades and has managed to survive multiple political crises. Netanyahu has faced criticism over what has been described as the biggest security failure in Israel’s history. However, he maintains that by killing the senior leadership of Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, he has made Israel and the world safer. Since 2009, his opponents have succeeded in removing him from power only once. After four consecutive inconclusive elections over a two-year period, Netanyahu was forced to leave the premiership. However, he returned to power just 18 months later. Netanyahu also faced longstanding corruption cases during the recent elections, which he denies. In addition, he has been criticized over intelligence failures that enabled Hamas to launch its October 7, 2023, attack on Israel.