Environment
The rapidly strengthening El Niño climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean has become a growing concern for India. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the current El Niño could become exceptionally strong and may rank amon
The situation could persist until February 2027, with the WMO indicating an almost 100% probability of its continuation, potentially affecting rainfall, temperatures, droughts, floods and heatwaves across different parts of the world.
During an El Niño event, sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal. This alters the usual patterns of winds, rainfall and temperatures across different regions of the world. In India, El Niño is generally associated with a weaker southwest monsoon.
According to the Ministry of Earth Sciences, of the 16 El Niño years recorded since 1950, seven were associated with below-normal monsoon rainfall in India. The impact of El Niño can be particularly noticeable during the later phase of the monsoon, especially in September.
India is already feeling the effects of a weak 2026 monsoon. According to Reuters, monsoon rainfall in the country is expected to be around 15% below normal this year, potentially making it the weakest monsoon since 2009. Rainfall in June was more than 35% below normal. Although conditions improved somewhat in July, rainfall declined again in August.
Attention is now focused on September rainfall because several kharif crops—including cotton, soybeans, maize and pulses—are at critical stages of their growing season.
This is where the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could play an important role. The IOD is a climate pattern driven by differences in sea-surface temperatures between the western and eastern parts of the Indian Ocean. Its positive phase is generally associated with warmer-than-normal waters in the western Indian Ocean and cooler waters in the eastern part.
In the past, a positive IOD has sometimes helped offset the negative effects of El Niño. In 1997, despite an exceptionally strong El Niño, a positive IOD helped support the Indian monsoon to a considerable extent.
However, the situation in 2026 is different and more complex. Recent reports suggest that a positive IOD pattern is developing in the Indian Ocean this year, raising hopes that it could limit some of the effects of El Niño. However, experts caution against viewing the IOD as a complete protective shield for India. The interaction between El Niño and the IOD varies from year to year, and the two climate systems can produce different impacts across different regions.
The example of 1997 is important because the positive IOD at the time helped keep India's monsoon relatively healthy despite the strength of El Niño. The key question now is whether the Indian Ocean can play a similar role once again. Experts say the answer remains uncertain.
The Indian government has also emphasized that the monsoon is not determined by El Niño alone. The IOD, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and regional ocean-atmosphere interactions also influence rainfall patterns. Therefore, it would be inappropriate to draw definitive conclusions about the entire monsoon season based solely on the strength of El Niño.
For India, the most immediate concern is now September rainfall. According to Reuters, rainfall in September is also expected to remain below normal. If the deficit continues, kharif crop production could suffer. At the same time, reduced soil moisture could affect the sowing of rabi crops, particularly wheat, mustard and chickpeas.
Lower agricultural production would have consequences beyond farmers. A decline in food supplies could increase imports of sugar, pulses, edible oils and other essential commodities. Higher food prices could also put additional pressure on inflation. This, in turn, could affect rural incomes, consumer spending and overall economic activity.
El Niño does not always manifest itself simply as a decline in overall rainfall. Some regions can experience lower cumulative rainfall while still facing short periods of extremely heavy rain, flooding and landslides. This apparent contradiction has also been observed in recent weather patterns, with some areas recording below-normal overall rainfall while experiencing an increase in episodes of extreme rainfall.
