Some Observations about Japan and the Japanese People, (Part 2)

Japan is an unusual country, and the Japanese people are among the most extraordinary nations in the world. Japan has virtually no significant mineral resources of its own, either on the surface or underground, and must import most of the raw materials it needs from other countries. The country's development depends largely on the intellectual abilities, creativity, and innovative capabilities of its people. The Japanese are also a deeply monarchist nation, traditionally holding their emperor in exceptionally high regard, almost elevating him to a divine status.

Japan's military history is astonishing. In 1904–05, it defeated Russia, a powerful nation and its close neighbor. During the 1930s, Japan occupied large parts of China. In the Second World War, it joined forces with Germany. When Japan launched its military expansion across the Pacific in 1941, its forces occupied islands throughout the region and advanced as far as Australia. Japan established its dominance over much of the Far East and occupied Burma, now known as Myanmar. India was fortunate to escape a similar fate; otherwise, Japanese troops might have advanced further into the country, as they had already reached areas near Calcutta and Chittagong. The military prowess of Japanese soldiers was widely acknowledged. Japan maintained its occupation of Burma for approximately three years. On May 1, 1945, following Hitler's suicide and Germany's surrender, Japan continued fighting the Allied powers alone, putting up fierce resistance.

Japan's military past is also remarkable for its brutality. Japanese soldiers were often described as even more ruthless and merciless than the armies of Genghis Khan and Hulagu Khan. The development of Japan's land, naval, and air forces was equally astonishing. Fortunately for the world, the United States developed the atomic bomb in July 1945. Had the United States not launched atomic attacks against Japan in August 1945, the Japanese military might never have surrendered.

Studying Japan's military history offers many important lessons. After the atomic bombings, the United States attempted to steer Japan towards a different path, and General Douglas MacArthur oversaw the rewriting of its Constitution, restricting the country's ability to wage war. However, instead of continuing to concentrate on offensive weapons, Japan redirected its industrial capabilities towards civilian products and achieved remarkable success. Today, Japan ranks among the world's most advanced and wealthiest nations.

Seventy-seven years have passed since the end of the Second World War, from 1945 to 2022. Throughout this long period, Japan's security has depended heavily on the United States. The two countries have a security treaty under which the United States is committed to assisting Japan if it comes under attack from another country. At present, approximately 50,000 American military personnel are stationed in Japan, with their headquarters at Yokota Air Base, west of Tokyo. This is one of the largest concentrations of American troops stationed outside the United States. The Japanese government bears a substantial share of the costs associated with their presence. These 50,000 American troops conduct military exercises with Japanese forces throughout the year.

The F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter is among the most advanced combat aircraft developed by the United States. It is an extremely expensive aircraft purchased by several countries, but Japan has acquired one of the largest fleets of F-35s outside the United States.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine, concerns within Japan's military leadership have continued to grow. The United States and NATO countries have been unable to intervene directly with their own combat forces to defend Ukraine against Russia. Japanese military planners increasingly worry that if American and NATO forces cannot prevent Russia from crossing Ukraine's land and airspace, Japan might one day face a similar predicament.

Russia and China are both Japan's neighbors and strategic rivals. If either country were to threaten Japan with nuclear weapons and launch an attack against one of its islands, Japan could potentially find itself in a situation resembling Ukraine's. The threat of an attack from North Korea has also become a growing concern. What would Japan do, and whom could it turn to, if Russia, China, and North Korea coordinated their efforts to seize Japanese territory? In view of these risks, Japan has begun considering a fundamental shift in its security policy: instead of relying primarily on the United States, it would take greater responsibility for its own defence. If this happens, the balance of power in Asia could change significantly.

Japan's Constitution, drafted under the supervision of American General Douglas MacArthur after the Second World War, places significant restrictions on the country's use of military force. However, Japan's parliament and military leadership are now considering a revolutionary increase in the defence budget and the expansion of domestic production of advanced and heavy weapons.

Economically, Japan has long been one of the world's largest economies. If it chooses, it could seek greater strategic independence from the American security umbrella and attempt to become a military power more comparable to other major independent nations. Some American intellectuals and think tanks have also argued that Japan becoming more militarily independent could provide a stronger counterweight to China.

Recently, China conducted large-scale military exercises surrounding Taiwan. If Beijing chose to escalate its activities, Chinese warships could enter waters near the Japanese archipelago. Such vessels could potentially carry ballistic missiles capable of launching attacks against Japanese islands. At first glance, it might seem straightforward for Japan to develop its own military capabilities and free itself from dependence on American military assistance. However, numerous obstacles stand in the way. The first challenge is whether the United States would provide Japan with the advanced technologies on which its sophisticated military weapons depend. It is unlikely that Washington would willingly surrender its technological advantages, and it may prefer to maintain Japan's reliance on American systems.

Japan began addressing this challenge several years ago by developing an advanced domestically produced fighter aircraft. The project has made considerable progress, and Japan is also moving towards developing hypersonic missiles. Hypersonic weapons travel at speeds exceeding five times the speed of sound. Nevertheless, Japan still has a considerable distance to cover in building the industrial infrastructure and securing the financial resources necessary to produce such sophisticated weapons on a large scale. Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party has proposed increasing defence spending to 2 per cent of national income over the next five years. At present, the country spends approximately 1 per cent by the measure used in the proposal. The United States has similarly urged European Union member states to allocate 2 per cent of their economic output to defence.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is expected to present a proposal at the next parliamentary session asking lawmakers to consider whether the defence budget should be doubled or maintained at its existing level. For the time being, however, the Japanese public does not appear particularly enthusiastic about the proposal. Officials in Japan's defense establishment argue that the country should continue purchasing weapons manufactured by the United States and other Western nations. Japan has also faced concerns about corruption, and critics might question whether vested interests play a role in sustaining these procurement arrangements.

In contrast, many Japanese citizens believe that the country should place greater emphasis on manufacturing heavy and sophisticated weapons domestically. One reason is that the United States and European countries are sometimes slow or reluctant to supply critical components for advanced military systems. Furthermore, American specialists who travel to Japan to maintain US-made weapons are often reluctant to transfer their technical expertise to Japanese personnel. American defense contractors also take extensive precautions to protect classified military technology from unauthorized access.

Incidentally, one might ask why Japanese companies are similarly reluctant to transfer the technical knowledge behind their civilian technologies to countries such as Pakistan, which purchase Japanese products. The reality is that no country possessing advanced technology can be expected to hand it over freely to another country at the expense of its own strategic and commercial interests. Consider Japanese automobiles. Pakistan has sought access to the technology behind their delicate and complex components for many years. Yet Japanese automobile manufacturers have not simply hesitated to provide it; they have generally refused to transfer that technology.