Environment
According to a report by the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago, the current Super El Niño could cause an estimated 451,000 additional heat-related deaths during its first nine months, from June 2026 to February 2027,
According to a report by the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago, the current Super El Niño could cause an estimated 451,000 additional heat-related deaths during its first nine months, from June 2026 to February 2027, compared with a normal year. Of these, 239,000 deaths could occur over the next six months. These deaths would be in addition to the number of deaths normally associated with heat. The report warned that El Niño is expected to persist until the spring of 2027, meaning the estimated death toll could rise further.
According to a new study, the powerful El Niño currently developing in the Pacific Ocean could cause hundreds of thousands of heat-related deaths worldwide, with developing countries expected to bear the greatest burden. El Niño is a natural warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean that can affect weather patterns around the world, bringing extreme heat and drought to some regions while causing heavy rainfall and flooding in others. The current event could become one of the strongest on record. The Climate Impact Lab, a research group involving the University of Chicago and other institutions, said in a report released this week that extreme heat associated with the 2026–27 El Niño could result in 451,000 additional deaths worldwide.
The impact is expected to be heavily concentrated in the Global South. Over the next six months, researchers forecast 66,800 additional heat-related deaths in the Sahel region of Africa, including 31,400 in Nigeria and 17,500 in Sudan. Indonesia could record another 19,300 deaths, India 15,800, and Brazil 13,300. In the United States, approximately 3,500 additional heat-related deaths could be recorded between September and February. Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and a professor at the University of Chicago, said the scale of the projected losses could be difficult to comprehend, emphasizing that the figures represent “parents and children, grandparents and neighbors.”
The warning comes as August was recorded as the hottest month globally, with an average temperature of 16.96 degrees Celsius. According to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, Western Europe also experienced its hottest summer on record. Researchers said temperatures associated with the current El Niño offer a glimpse of conditions that could become far more common over the next two decades as the planet continues to warm.
