Asia Pacific
Amid the ongoing war between Iran and the United States, two major global financial institutions, Goldman Sachs and Capital Economics,
Amid the ongoing war between Iran and the United States, two major global financial institutions, Goldman Sachs and Capital Economics, have issued new forecasts regarding oil prices, causing concern in global markets. Major financial institutions in the United States and the United Kingdom have warned that if the issue of oil supplies from the Middle East is not resolved soon, crude oil prices in global markets could rise to $150 per barrel.
In a special report, the international news agency Reuters said that crude oil prices could rise above $120 per barrel in the coming months, while Brent crude could reach $130 per barrel. Similarly, according to global energy research firm Facts Global Energy (FGE), if a prolonged disruption to oil supplies from the Middle East continues, Brent crude could rise to between $120 and $150 per barrel. Meanwhile, global ratings agency Fitch has estimated an average Brent crude price of $120 per barrel for 2026.
Experts say oil prices in global markets have already exceeded $110 per barrel and are currently trading at around $108, which they describe as a dangerous trend. They say global corporations are also discussing the possibility of pushing oil prices as high as $200 per barrel in pursuit of higher profits, as they consider profit to be their top priority. Experts say global powers should have taken immediate steps to end the war, but "criminal negligence" was shown in dealing with the situation. They therefore argue that pressure should be increased on governments and world leaders.
American economist Professor Jeffrey Sachs considers the current situation more dangerous for humanity than the Cold War. He says the economic devastation is not affecting just one region but is having consequences for people around the world. He has called for increased pressure on the United Nations, governments, and global leaders to bring an end to what he described as this "absurd war." Meanwhile, Reuters reported that the impact on global energy markets has become increasingly severe. Concerns over global oil supplies have grown due to an unusual decline in the movement of oil tankers and commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Reuters, the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen sharply compared with normal levels before the war. The disruption in this strategically important waterway has raised concerns in global markets because a significant share of the world's energy trade passes through this route.
Amid rising regional tensions, crude oil prices in the global market have once again surged sharply. Brent crude has crossed $108 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has also risen above $103 per barrel. Fresh attacks on energy facilities in Saudi Arabia have further intensified the situation. Following disruptions to the transportation of oil through the important East-West pipeline, concerns have grown in global markets that oil supplies from the Middle East could decline further.
The Strait of Hormuz is considered one of the world's most important energy routes. If shipping through the strait remains disrupted for an extended period, global shipments of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) could suffer significant losses. Major markets, including those in Asia and Europe, would have to obtain energy from alternative sources. According to experts, the impact of continuously rising oil prices is not limited to petrol. Electricity, transportation, industry, food prices, and overall inflation are also affected. Higher oil prices can also increase trade and financial pressures on oil-importing countries. Several major energy-consuming countries, including China, are also using their oil reserves during the current crisis to limit the impact of potential supply shortages.
The situation is also a matter of concern for Pakistan. Rising crude oil prices in global markets could increase Pakistan's import bill, put pressure on petroleum product prices, and contribute to higher inflation. A sustained increase in oil prices could also put pressure on the Pakistani rupee and affect other sectors of the economy. Experts say that if tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue, further attacks on Saudi energy facilities occur, and disruptions to global oil supplies increase, crude oil prices could rise to $120 per barrel or even higher.
However, if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal as a result of a ceasefire, diplomatic negotiations, or a reduction in tensions, pressure on prices in the global oil market could ease quickly. The current situation resulting from the Iran war has made it clear that military tensions in the Middle East are no longer merely a regional issue. Their effects have now extended to global energy supplies, trade, inflation, and economic stability. The world's attention is now focused on the Strait of Hormuz, as any further disruption to this vital maritime route could trigger a major energy crisis for the global economy.
