Politics
According to a new poll, French right-wing politician Marine Le Pen is leading the race for the 2027 presidential election and appears positioned to defeat her left-wing and centrist rivals in hypothetical electoral matchups.
The poll also indicates growing confidence in Le Pen’s leadership. Approximately 51% of respondents believe she would make a good president, an increase of six percentage points compared with the previous survey. The corresponding figure for RN president Jordan Bardella is 47%. Le Pen reached the second round of France’s presidential elections in both 2017 and 2022 but lost to Emmanuel Macron on both occasions. The incumbent president is constitutionally barred from seeking a third consecutive term. Macron’s departure from office comes as France faces mounting fiscal pressures.
In July, the Paris Court of Appeal reduced the five-year ban on holding public office imposed on Le Pen following her conviction over the misuse of European Union funds, potentially clearing the way for her to contest the 2027 election. Her party has also strengthened its parliamentary position. In September, the RN and its ally, the Union of the Right for the Republic (UDR), secured enough Senate seats to establish a parliamentary group for the first time. Macron’s centrist camp has lacked a parliamentary majority since 2022, leaving successive governments struggling to secure approval for their budgets.
By the end of June, France’s national debt had reached €3.6 trillion (more than $4 trillion), equivalent to 119% of gross domestic product (GDP). The proposed 2027 budget is also facing opposition in a fragmented parliament. Both Le Pen and Mélenchon have criticised Western policies regarding NATO and Ukraine. Le Pen has advocated withdrawing France from NATO’s integrated military command, lifting sanctions on Russia and pursuing a negotiated settlement to the conflict in Ukraine. Mélenchon has called for France to withdraw completely from NATO. The RN has repeatedly opposed open-ended military funding for Kyiv and warned against measures that could draw France into direct confrontation with Russia. Le Pen has also called for the restoration of relations with Moscow.
According to the report, the prospect of a Le Pen presidency has raised concerns among Ukraine’s Western supporters. The Telegraph reported in August that officials feared her election could undermine French-led efforts to coordinate military and financial assistance for Kyiv, as well as plans to deploy Western troops in Ukraine following a ceasefire. The Toluna Harris Interactive poll was conducted online from October 5 to 8 among 2,004 registered voters.
