Democrats are considered to have a strong chance of winning the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate in the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November 3.
Democrats are considered to have a strong chance of winning the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate in the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November 3. According to nonpartisan analysts, a Democratic victory could give the party a greater role in policymaking in Washington after two years of Republican control, increasing the likelihood of changes to many of President Donald Trump’s policies.
Under the U.S. Constitution, powers over foreign policy and defense are divided in a way that allows both the president and Congress—the House of Representatives and the Senate—to influence one another. Major U.S. foreign policy decisions generally fall within the president’s authority, but Congress also plays a crucial role in implementing them. From continuing wars to approving defense spending and providing financial or military assistance to other countries, congressional approval is essential for many key decisions. Consequently, when the president belongs to one party while the opposing party controls Congress, intense disputes over foreign policy often emerge, making it difficult for the president to secure support for his decisions.
Republicans currently control both chambers of Congress, although their advantage in the House is extremely narrow. A party needs 218 seats to hold a majority in the House of Representatives. Democrats hold 214 seats, while Republicans have a slim advantage with 218 seats. In the Senate, Republicans hold 53 seats, giving them a more substantial majority, while Democrats have 47 seats. Two independent senators also generally vote with the Democrats.
According to a report by The Guardian, political observers believe that rising inflation linked to the war with Iran, along with several other decisions by the Trump administration, could fuel an anti-incumbent mood and benefit the opposition Democrats in the midterm elections. A detailed report by Reuters says that if Democrats win a majority in either or both chambers of Congress, they could take four major steps to constrain Trump’s foreign policy.
President Trump did not seek congressional approval before launching the war against Iran on February 28. Since then, Democrats have repeatedly voted in favor of resolutions opposing the continuation of military action without congressional authorization. One such resolution also received support from several Republican lawmakers, but the Trump administration disregarded it. Under the U.S. Constitution, Congress also holds significant powers over war-related decisions and government spending. On this basis, Democrats argue that the president should not make decisions about military operations and their costs unilaterally while bypassing Congress.
If Democrats gain control of the House of Representatives or the Senate, they could pressure Trump by seeking cuts to defense spending. They could also require senior U.S. officials to explain war plans and future strategy during public congressional hearings. A Democratic majority in Congress would not guarantee an end to the war, but it could make it more difficult for President Trump to make decisions concerning the conflict.
The deaths of thousands of Palestinians during Israel’s military offensive in Gaza have contributed to declining support for Israel among Democrats. This has led to growing divisions within the party over U.S. military assistance to Israel and a noticeable shift in policy positions. Israel’s continued violence in the occupied West Bank, the expansion of settlements, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s close relationship with Republican leaders have also contributed to changing attitudes toward Israel.
During the last fiscal year, the United States provided Israel with $3.8 billion in military assistance, more than it gave to any other country. Democrats could seek to limit or completely suspend military aid to Israel. Earlier this summer, nearly half of the Democratic members of the House of Representatives voted in favor of ending assistance to Israel. Some lawmakers who opposed that proposal, including Gregory Meeks, have nevertheless supported restrictions on supplying Israel with certain weapons, such as heavy bombs.
President Trump has largely halted U.S. financial and military assistance to Ukraine, despite clear support for continued aid in Congress from Democrats and a number of Republicans. In recent days, several members of Congress have also expressed concerns about lifting restrictions on Russian oil. These disagreements have become more pronounced because the Trump administration had signed legislation imposing sanctions on Russian oil just weeks earlier.
If Democrats win majorities in both chambers of Congress in November, they would gain greater control over which issues are brought to a vote and when. They could use that authority to push for approval of new assistance to Ukraine, potentially securing support from Republican lawmakers as well.
Democrats are generally more supportive of limiting defense spending than Trump’s Republican allies. This year, Trump requested a 67% increase in the U.S. military budget, proposing to raise it to a record $1.5 trillion. Democrats opposed the proposal in the Senate. They argued that Trump had failed to consult Congress over the war with Iran while also making sweeping cuts to social welfare programs.
In addition, the Trump administration has withheld or canceled billions of dollars in foreign assistance previously approved by Congress. Democrats have expressed opposition to these cuts and said they would try to restore the funding. A Democratic victory in November could therefore give the party an opportunity not only to put pressure on Trump’s war policy and defense spending, but also to influence U.S. policy toward Ukraine and Israel and decisions concerning foreign aid.
