Climate scientists have issued a deeply concerning new forecast, warning that an intensifying “Super El Niño” could cause approximately 900,000 additional deaths worldwide over a period of just 10 months.
Climate scientists have issued a deeply concerning new forecast, warning that an intensifying “Super El Niño” could cause approximately 900,000 additional deaths worldwide over a period of just 10 months.
The El Niño Mortality Tracker, developed by the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab, forecasts the potentially devastating effects of this climate phenomenon on human lives. El Niño occurs when average sea surface temperatures in the central and equatorial Pacific Ocean rise by 2 degrees Celsius or more above the long-term average. Researchers estimate that this dangerous climate pattern has already caused an additional 484,500 heat-related deaths between June and September this year, while approximately 372,900 more deaths are projected over the next six months.
According to data from the mortality tracker, Nigeria is expected to record the highest number of heat-related deaths, with more than 56,000 additional fatalities projected over the next six months. India is forecast to experience approximately 55,000 additional heat-related deaths, while Indonesia could see nearly 29,000. The figures also indicate that more than one-third of all projected additional deaths associated with El Niño will occur in China, Nigeria and India alone.
Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab, said that being able to forecast the deadly effects of extreme heat in advance represents a major breakthrough. He explained that such forecasts help identify the areas where people face the greatest risks and give policymakers an opportunity to take preventive measures to save lives. Following the extreme heat experienced this year, the latest projections have risen dramatically compared with previous reports. August was recorded as the hottest August on record, while September was the second-hottest September ever recorded.
A regular El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years, while a Super El Niño generally develops once every 10 to 15 years. The phenomenon can trigger heavy rainfall in the United States and Europe, while causing prolonged droughts and famine in Australia, Indonesia and South Asia. Experts say that global warming, driven by human activities and the burning of fossil fuels, is making El Niño events increasingly powerful.
