Deadlock in Israeli Elections: What Happens Next? Four Possible Scenarios Emerge

Israel has plunged into a political crisis following the announcement of the final results of its general election, with neither political bloc securing the majority required to form a government. As a result, the formation of a new government appears increasingly difficult. According to US broadcaster CNN, a minimum of 61 seats is required to form a government in Israel’s 120-member parliament, the Knesset. However, neither the right-wing coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party nor the opposition alliance headed by Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar Party has managed to secure the required majority.

Following the election results, Israel could face weeks or even months of political uncertainty. Ideological differences among political parties and their reluctance to form alliances with one another are likely to make the formation of a workable coalition difficult. Nevertheless, four possible scenarios are being considered to resolve the political deadlock: an opposition-led government, a national unity government, Netanyahu winning over lawmakers from opposition parties, and holding another general election.

The first possible option is for opposition parties to join forces and form a government without Netanyahu. To make this plan work, the opposition would need to establish cooperation between Jewish and Arab political parties. However, this is also the biggest obstacle to such an arrangement. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and former Defence Minister Avigdor Lieberman, both part of the opposition alliance, oppose any government formed with the support of Arab parties. Neither leader wants Arab parties to become part of a governing coalition or provide outside support to a minority government.

In Israel’s political history, an Arab party has joined a government as a full coalition partner only once. In 2021, the Arab party Ra’am joined an eight-party coalition that removed Netanyahu from power. However, that government collapsed after approximately one year. Even if opposition parties fail to form a government, they could use their potential parliamentary majority to bring about changes in key positions. This could include replacing the Knesset speaker, an attempt that could be used to limit the powers of Netanyahu’s caretaker government. However, finding a replacement for Netanyahu as prime minister would remain a major challenge for these parties.

The second option is the formation of a national unity government. Under this scenario, the two major political blocs could abandon their existing arrangements and agree to form a joint government. Such a government would require Netanyahu’s Likud Party and its current coalition partners to join at least one opposition party. According to reports, Netanyahu may be willing to part ways with far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. However, he is reluctant to exclude Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and the religious parties from the government.

On the other hand, opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot has already ruled out the possibility of forming a government with Netanyahu. If he changes his position, Israeli voters who oppose Netanyahu may view the move as a retreat from his previous commitments. The third possible scenario involves Netanyahu attempting to win over lawmakers from opposition parties. Under this plan, he could try to persuade opposition lawmakers or individual parliamentarians to join his coalition in order to secure the majority needed to form a government.

 However, this option is also unlikely to be easy. All four leading opposition figures—Gadi Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Lieberman and Yair Golan—have made it clear that they will not join a government led by Netanyahu. Netanyahu’s current coalition is eight seats short of the majority required to form a government. He would therefore need the support of at least eight opposition lawmakers. Given the firm positions adopted by the political parties, persuading such a large number of lawmakers to join his side appears difficult.

The fourth and final option is to hold fresh elections. If political parties fail to form a government through any of the available arrangements, Israel may have to hold another general election. Israeli President Isaac Herzog will consult the leaders of political parties elected to the Knesset. After hearing their views, the president will invite one of the political leaders to attempt to form a government.

Under Israel’s parliamentary system, the leader tasked with forming a government is given 28 days to complete the process, with a possible extension of another 14 days if necessary. If the first candidate fails, the president can assign the responsibility to another leader, who will also have 28 days to form a government. If the second attempt is unsuccessful, a majority of Knesset members can ask the president to give a third candidate an opportunity. That candidate will have 14 days to form a government. If all these attempts fail and no party or coalition succeeds in forming a government, fresh elections will be held.

Under the current circumstances, Netanyahu has an important political advantage because he can remain in office as caretaker prime minister until a new government is formed. If Gadi Eisenkot is given the first opportunity to form a government but fails, Netanyahu could subsequently be assigned the responsibility. If Netanyahu also fails to secure a majority, Israel could remain in political deadlock, paving the way for another general election. In the meantime, Netanyahu would continue serving as caretaker prime minister until a new government is established.

Following the latest election results, another election before the spring of next year appears unlikely. However, if political differences remain unresolved, the possibility could become a reality. If Israel holds another general election, it would be the country's seventh general election in the past eight years. Thus, the latest election results have once again plunged Israel into a prolonged political crisis, leaving the formation of a new government uncertain.