Israel election ends in deadlock as Netanyahu and rival claim mandate

Exit polls and preliminary results following Israel’s highly significant general election have pointed to a new political crisis and a potential deadlock in government formation. The election has dealt a major blow to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc. The election, held amid security concerns and a wave of public anger, witnessed an unusually high level of voter participation. According to the Central Elections Committee, more than 5.7 million people out of approximately 7.3 million eligible voters cast their ballots, bringing voter turnout to 77.7 percent — the highest rate since 1999.

According to preliminary exit polls, Netanyahu’s ruling Likud Party has emerged as the largest single party, but his bloc of right-wing and ultra-religious allies appears to have fallen short of retaining a majority in the 120-member Knesset, Israel’s parliament. According to exit polls and preliminary estimates by Israeli news channel Channel 12, Netanyahu’s coalition is projected to have fallen from its previous 68 seats to just 52, with Likud expected to secure 27 seats. Meanwhile, the opposition alliance led by former military chief and prominent opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot, known as Yashar, along with other opposition parties, is projected to win 49 seats. Eisenkot’s own alliance is expected to secure between 21 and 22 seats.

However, neither side appears to have secured the 61 seats required for a simple majority to form a government, raising the prospect of intense political negotiations and coalition maneuvering in parliament. One of the most significant aspects of the election is the historic rise of Arab political parties, including the Joint List and Ra’am, which are projected to win a combined 19 seats. This would represent the largest number of Arab representatives in the history of the Israeli parliament.

The development could place Arab parties in a pivotal and potentially decisive position in the government formation process. However, speaking in Jerusalem on Wednesday morning, Netanyahu acknowledged the decline in his bloc’s seats but claimed that the results demonstrated that he continued to enjoy majority support among the Zionist and Jewish electorate. He described Arab parties as anti-Zionist and categorically ruled out forming a government with them. In light of the exit polls, opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot said that the public had voted for change. However, securing a clear and straightforward path to government formation remains a challenge for the opposition as well.

Under Israel’s constitutional procedures, once the final election results are officially certified, the president will invite the leader considered most capable of securing a parliamentary majority to form a government. Eisenkot could be given four to six weeks to negotiate with other parties and assemble a coalition of 61 seats. However, if neither Eisenkot nor Netanyahu manages to demonstrate a majority and parliament fails to agree on a candidate, Israel could once again be forced to hold another general election. Until the final results are announced and a new government is formed, Netanyahu will continue serving as caretaker prime minister.