Environment
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a United Nations agency, has warned that the El Niño climate phenomenon will strengthen further before reaching its expected peak in December
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a United Nations agency, has warned that the El Niño climate phenomenon will strengthen further before reaching its expected peak in December and could become one of the strongest El Niño events since 1950. According to the WMO’s monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update, El Niño is continuing to intensify, with above-normal temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns expected across much of the world. The risk of droughts and floods could also increase in various regions.
The WMO said El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterized by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This affects wind patterns, atmospheric pressure and rainfall systems around the world. The phenomenon typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts for approximately nine to 12 months. According to the WMO, sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are expected to reach record levels during October, November and December 2026. This could have significant effects on weather patterns, economies, ecosystems and populations worldwide. The forecast is based on a joint assessment by 13 major national and international climate centers.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said El Niño is now firmly established and rapidly intensifying. She said there is an almost 100 percent probability that El Niño will persist through February 2027 and that it could rank among the strongest events recorded since 1950. She explained that El Niño does not add new heat to the Earth but causes heat already stored in the ocean to be released into the atmosphere. According to her, the ocean releasing this heat is currently the warmest on record, meaning the amount of heat being released is also greater.
According to the WMO, the sea-surface temperature index in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific was 1.6 degrees Celsius above normal in June and rose to 2.5 degrees Celsius above normal in August. The difference is forecast to reach approximately 3.7 degrees Celsius during October, November and December. If the forecast is confirmed, it would represent the highest sea-surface temperature anomaly since observations began, surpassing the previous record of 2.6 degrees Celsius set in 2015–16.
El Niño typically reaches its peak intensity between November and February. However, its impact on global temperatures often becomes evident some time later. According to the report, the previous El Niño contributed to making 2023 the second-warmest year on record, while 2024 was the warmest year on record, with the global average temperature recorded at approximately 1.55 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average of 1850–1900. The effects of El Niño have already begun to emerge in some regions. Reports indicate that drought in Central America has affected livestock and crops, while the coming months are expected to bring an increased risk of drought, heavy rainfall and flooding in various parts of the world.
